Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market
The market for Sustainable Aviation Fuel was estimated at $2.1 billion in 2025; it is anticipated to increase to $19.8 billion by 2030, with projections indicating growth to around $182 billion by 2035.
Report Summary
Market Data
Methodology
Table of Contents
Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook
Revenue, 2025
$2.1B
Forecast, 2035
$182B
CAGR, 2026 - 2035
55.9%
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry revenue is expected to be around $2.1 billion in 2026 and expected to showcase growth with 55.9% CAGR between 2026 and 2035. This robust outlook underscores the rising strategic importance of Sustainable Aviation Fuel within global aviation decarbonization initiatives, as airlines, airports, and defense agencies increasingly adopt low-carbon aviation fuel solutions to comply with stricter emissions regulations and align with net-zero aviation roadmaps. Intensifying policy support, escalating carbon pricing, and a surge in long-term offtake agreements between fuel producers and carriers are accelerating capital investment in SAF production capacity, strengthening supply chains, and reinforcing the sustainable aviation fuel market as a critical enabler of long-term airline competitiveness and carbon-neutral flights.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel is a certified drop-in renewable jet fuel that can be blended with conventional kerosene and used in existing aircraft and airport infrastructure, delivering significant lifecycle emissions reductions while preserving safety, engine performance, and operational reliability. The SAF market is dominated by commercial aviation and military aviation, which together account for 92.8% of application demand, while bio-based fuel pathways led the industry with $1.64 billion in revenue in 2025 and are now being complemented by emerging synthetic SAF technologies, diversified waste-based feedstocks, and expanding corporate travel emissions commitments, all of which are driving sustained global demand for SAF and supporting its transition from niche alternative to mainstream aviation energy source.
Market Key Insights
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel market is projected to grow from $2.1 billion in 2025 to $182 billion in 2035. This represents a CAGR of 55.9%, reflecting rising demand across Commercial Aviation, Business and General Aviation, and Military Aviation.
Neste, World Energy, and TotalEnergies are among the leading players in this market, shaping its competitive landscape.
U.S. and Germany are the top markets within the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market and are expected to observe the growth CAGR of 53.7% to 78.3% between 2025 and 2030.
Emerging markets including Indonesia, Brazil and UAE are expected to observe highest growth with CAGR ranging between 41.9% to 58.1%.
Transition like Transition Towards Biofuels is expected to add $5 billion to the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market growth by 2030.
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel market is set to add $180 billion between 2025 and 2035, with manufacturer targeting Business and General Aviation & Military Aviation Application projected to gain a larger market share.
With
rising environmental concerns, and
Tech Innovations for SAF Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuel market to expand 8381% between 2025 and 2035.
Opportunities in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Corporate flight departments and business jet operators are also early adopters of SAF, motivated by reputational risk, shareholder expectations, and strict ESG reporting. This premium segment can absorb higher synthetic SAF costs, supporting rapid technology deployment and de-risking large-scale projects. Growth will be strongest in synthetic pathways linked to renewable electricity and captured CO2, with opportunities for fixed-base operators to bundle SAF, verified emissions data, and bespoke decarbonization consulting into long-term service contracts. This niche supports demonstration of SAF models.
Growth Opportunities in North America and Europe
In North America, Sustainable Aviation Fuel demand is led by commercial aviation, where large network carriers and low-cost airlines are prioritizing airline decarbonization to manage long-term exposure to carbon costs and corporate travel expectations for low-carbon aviation. Business and general aviation is emerging as a premium niche, with high willingness to pay for carbon-neutral aviation solutions, while military aviation acts as a stable, strategic demand anchor for domestically produced renewable jet fuel. Top opportunities center on scaling HEFA and Alcohol-to-Jet capacity integrated into existing refining assets, securing long-term offtake contracts with major carriers, and developing regional SAF hubs around key airports that can later transition toward advanced aviation biofuels and Power-to-Liquids pathways. Competition is intensifying as traditional refiners, biofuel specialists, and new technology developers converge on the SAF market, creating a need for clear differentiation based on lifecycle emissions performance, reliable feedstock access, and flexible logistics. Key regional drivers include supportive federal and state-level incentives, corporate net-zero emissions commitments, and strong investor appetite for green aviation technology, which together favor producers that can rapidly deliver bankable, large-scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel projects aligned with stringent sustainability criteria.
In Europe, Sustainable Aviation Fuel growth is dominated by commercial aviation, where stringent regulatory mandates and escalating carbon pricing are accelerating the shift toward renewable jet fuel as a core compliance and competitiveness lever for airlines. Business and general aviation also offers attractive margins, as charter operators and corporate fleets seek high-blend SAF options to meet ambitious ESG and net-zero emissions targets, while military aviation primarily supports strategic energy security and demonstration projects. Top opportunities focus on building advanced SAF capacity based on Power-to-Liquids and Waste-to-Jet technologies, leveraging abundant renewable electricity and cross-border logistics to position Europe as a technology leader in carbon-neutral aviation. The competitive landscape includes established energy companies, regional utilities, and specialized SAF innovators, driving rapid technology differentiation and consolidation through joint ventures and long-term supply agreements with major airline alliances. Key regional drivers are binding SAF blending mandates, strong public pressure for sustainable mobility, green financing instruments, and coordinated airport initiatives, all of which reward market participants that can deliver traceable, ultra-low-carbon Sustainable Aviation Fuel at scale while integrating seamlessly into existing supply chains.
Market Dynamics and Supply Chain
01
Driver: Tightening Aviation Emission Regulations and Rapid Growth in Long Term SAF Offtake Agreements
A primary driver of the sustainable aviation fuel market is also the combined impact of tightening aviation emission regulations and the rapid expansion of long term SAF offtake agreements. On the regulatory side, governments and aviation authorities are also introducing mandates such as blending targets, carbon offset schemes, and lifecycle emission reporting requirements, pushing airlines to integrate SAF into fuel procurement strategies. Separately, long term offtake agreements between airlines, fuel producers, and airports are also reducing demand uncertainty and supporting large scale SAF production investments. These contracts provide price visibility and volume security, encouraging refiners to scale HEFA, Alcohol to Jet, and synthetic fuel pathways. Together, regulatory pressure and contractual demand commitments are also creating a stable commercialization environment that accelerates SAF adoption across global aviation networks.
Another key driver is also ongoing advancement in feedstock conversion and refining technologies that enhance SAF scalability and cost efficiency. Innovations in catalysts, process integration, and co-processing techniques are also improving yields from waste oils, agricultural residues, and municipal solid waste. At the same time, new pathways such as power to liquid and advanced Alcohol to Jet processes are also expanding the range of viable feedstocks. These technological improvements lower production costs, improve fuel quality consistency, and increase output capacity. As a result, producers can also supply larger SAF volumes suitable for commercial aviation while maintaining drop in compatibility. This trend is also gradually narrowing the cost gap with conventional jet fuel and strengthening long term market viability.
02
Restraint: High Production Costs and Limited Economies of Scale Restrict SAF Commercial Competitiveness
One major restraint for sustainable aviation fuel is its high production cost and limited economies of scale compared with conventional jet fuel. SAF production pathways such as HEFA and synthetic fuels require expensive feedstocks and energy intensive processing, resulting in prices multiple times higher than fossil jet fuel. This cost gap discourages broader airline adoption, especially for carriers operating with tight margins. For example, several airlines have reduced planned SAF procurement volumes when fuel price premiums spiked, directly impacting revenue forecasts for SAF producers and slowing long term investment in new production facilities.
03
Opportunity: Bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel for European low-cost carrier networks and Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel demand from long-haul commercial airlines
European budget airlines face mounting pressure from price-sensitive passengers who still expect affordable, carbon-neutral flights, creating a niche for scalable Sustainable Aviation Fuel blends. Globally, bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel is projected to expand from $1.64 billion in 2025 to $14.10 billion by 2030, a 53.8% CAGR that underpins long-term supply security. Untapped upside lies in feedstock aggregation from municipal waste, joint procurement platforms, and airport-based refining clusters serving multiple low-cost carriers. These models align with emerging green airports strategies across secondary European hubs.
Long-haul carriers are accelerating Sustainable Aviation Fuel procurement as regulators tighten lifecycle emissions thresholds and corporate travelers demand verifiable low-carbon aviation fuel. Globally, synthetic SAF is poised for the fastest growth in this segment, supported by its higher energy density and 61.96% CAGR from $0.51 billion in 2025 to $5.70 billion by 2030. Untapped opportunities include multi-airline offtake consortia, power-to-liquid projects near major hubs, and integrated supply agreements bundling renewable jet fuel with emissions accounting services, advancing airline net-zero aviation commitments.
04
Challenge: Feedstock Availability Constraints and Supply Chain Bottlenecks Limit SAF Market Expansion
Another significant restraint is the limited availability of sustainable feedstocks and related supply chain bottlenecks, which hinder SAF production scaling. Many SAF pathways rely on waste oils, agricultural residues, or specialized biomass, but consistent, certified feedstock supply remains insufficient to meet growing demand. In regions with nascent collection logistics, producers experience feedstock shortages that delay expansion of refining capacity. For instance, SAF producers have postponed planned output increases due to inconsistent feedstock deliveries, reducing market supply, constraining airline blending commitments, and slowing overall market growth.
Supply Chain Landscape
1
SAF-Feedstock Sourcing
CargillArcher Daniels MidlandDarling Ingredients
2
Sustainable-Aviation-Fuel Production
NesteWorld Energy LLCTotalEnergies
3
Low-Carbon Distribution
Shell International B.V.BP P.L.C.Vitol
4
End-Use Applications
Commercial passenger aviationAir cargo operationsMilitary and defense aviation
1
SAF-Feedstock Sourcing
CargillArcher Daniels MidlandDarling Ingredients
2
Sustainable-Aviation-Fuel Production
NesteWorld Energy LLCTotalEnergies
3
Low-Carbon Distribution
Shell International B.V.BP P.L.C.Vitol
4
End-Use Applications
Commercial passenger aviationAir cargo operationsMilitary and defense aviation
Use Cases of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in Commercial & Business
Commercial Aviation : Commercial aviation represents the largest application segment for sustainable aviation fuel, driven by airline commitments to reduce carbon emissions and comply with regulatory mandates. In this segment, HEFA based sustainable aviation fuel is most widely used due to its commercial availability and compatibility with existing aircraft engines and fueling infrastructure. Airlines typically blend SAF with conventional jet fuel to meet certification limits while achieving immediate emission reductions. The key advantage lies in its drop in capability, allowing operators to lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions without modifying fleets. Growing long term offtake agreements between airlines and fuel producers are accelerating adoption across major international routes.
Business and General Aviation : Business and general aviation is emerging as an early adopter of sustainable aviation fuel, supported by corporate sustainability goals and flexible fueling strategies. HEFA and increasingly Alcohol to Jet fuels are commonly used in this segment because of their reliability and suitability for smaller scale supply chains. Private jet operators and charter services use SAF blends to reduce emissions while maintaining performance and safety standards. The segment benefits from shorter decision cycles and premium pricing tolerance, enabling faster experimentation with higher SAF blend ratios. Adoption in this application also enhances brand value for operators focused on environmental responsibility.
Military Aviation : Military aviation applications of sustainable aviation fuel focus on energy security, operational resilience, and emission reduction targets set by defense agencies. Fischer Tropsch synthetic fuels and HEFA based SAF are primarily used due to their high fuel stability and ability to be produced from diverse feedstocks. Military forces test and deploy SAF blends in transport aircraft, surveillance platforms, and training fleets without compromising mission readiness. A major advantage is reduced dependence on conventional fuel supply chains, which improves logistical flexibility. Government funded pilot programs and long term procurement strategies continue to support SAF integration across defense aviation operations.
Recent Developments
Recent developments in sustainable aviation fuel highlight expanded SAF production facilities, increased airline offtake agreements, and strengthening decarbonization commitments across the aviation industry. Airlines are signing long-term contracts to secure blended SAF supply, addressing carbon reduction targets and regulatory pressures. A key market trend is the scaling of advanced biofuel technologies and power-to-liquid pathways, improving feedstock flexibility and lowering lifecycle emissions. These moves are accelerating fuel certification processes, enhancing supply chain resilience, and gradually narrowing the cost gap with conventional jet fuel.
September 2024 : TotalEnergies agreed to supply up to 1.5 million tons of sustainable aviation fuel to Air France-KLM over a 10-year period through 2035. This offtake agreement is one of the largest SAF contracts in Europe and underpins growing airline demand for certified low-carbon fuels to meet emission reduction goals. The SAF supplied will be produced from waste and residues via TotalEnergies’ European biorefineries and coprocessing units, strengthening the company’s position in the SAF market.
December 2024 : Eni’s biorefining arm Enilive inked two agreements with easyJet to supply sustainable aviation fuel at Milan Malpensa Airport, including a Letter of Intent to deliver about 30,000 tons of pure SAF between 2025 and 2030. The collaboration leverages Italy’s SAF support program and helps expand SAF use on commercial routes, showcasing growing airline commitments to SAF.
April 2025 : Neste started producing sustainable aviation fuel at its Rotterdam renewable products refinery, adding 500,000 tons of annual SAF production capacity and increasing global SAF output to 1.5 million tons per year. This development enhances supply availability in Europe and supports mandates such as ReFuelEU Aviation while expanding Neste’s production infrastructure.
Impact of Industry Transitions on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market
As a core segment of the Renewable Energy industry,
the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market develops in line with broader industry shifts.
Over recent years, transitions such as Transition Towards Biofuels and Rise of Technology and Innovation have redefined priorities
across the Renewable Energy sector,
influencing how the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market evolves in terms of demand, applications and competitive dynamics.
These transitions highlight the structural changes shaping long-term growth opportunities.
01
Transition Towards Biofuels
Driven by stringent climate mandates and international decarbonization agreements, the rapid transition toward biofuels is repositioning the SAF market from a niche compliance solution to a core growth engine, projected to add about $5 billion to market value by 2030. Aviation biofuels derived from waste biomass and other renewable feedstocks can cut lifecycle emissions by up to 80% versus conventional jet fuel, making SAF a critical lever for net-zero aviation strategies and airline ESG commitments. As regulators tighten carbon constraints and passengers increasingly favour low-carbon aviation fuel and decarbonized air travel, capital is shifting toward large-scale renewable jet fuel capacity, accelerating commercialization, lowering unit costs, and structurally expanding long-term demand for SAF across global aviation value chains.
02
Rise of Technology and Innovation
The rise of technology and innovation is reshaping the sustainable aviation fuel landscape by improving production efficiency, scalability, and feedstock flexibility. Advanced refining processes such as improved HEFA pathways, Alcohol to Jet conversion, and power to liquid synthesis are enabling higher fuel yields and better lifecycle emission performance. Digital process control and catalyst optimization are reducing energy consumption and operational costs at SAF plants. These innovations also influence associated industries, including waste management and renewable energy, by creating new demand for agricultural residues, used cooking oil, and green hydrogen. For example, partnerships between SAF producers and renewable power providers are accelerating hydrogen supply for synthetic fuels. This transition strengthens cross industry collaboration while supporting long term decarbonization goals across aviation and energy value chains.